Thai exports projected to grow 15-16% in 2026 on electronics and AI demand

Exports are projected to grow by 15-16% in 2026, following stronger-than-expected growth in the first nine months, driven by demand for electronics and investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) under the Commerce Ministry said.

In the baseline projection, exports are forecast to grow by 15% year on year to $193.2 billion, or by 16% to $196.3 billion. In the upside scenario, exports may rise by up to 19%, reaching an all-time high of $404.8 billion, the TPSO director-general said. The office earlier projected exports would grow by 11% this year. He added that export growth could slow to about 2-4% in 2027 given the high base in 2026 as AI-related investment continues.

In the first nine months of 2026, exports rose 19.6% to $304.5 billion, while imports rose 7.8% to $348.2 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $43.6 billion. In September, exports totalled $38.4 billion, up 24% year on year, driven by shipments of electronics products as the country is considered a key exporter in the global supply chain. Import value hit an all-time high in September, while import growth was the highest in 36 months since June 2021, the director-general said, explaining that the import structure aligned with manufacturing and exports. He noted that imports for production accounted for 78.1% of total imports, comprising raw materials, machinery and energy used by Thai businesses for manufacturing and exports.

Industrial products exports expanded 25.4% year on year, with key products showing strong expansion including computers and peripherals at 95.4%, telephones and components at 117.5%, circuit boards at 54.9%, video recording equipment and parts at 103.6%, electrical equipment and parts at 43.8%, and electrical transformers and parts at 32.2%. Agricultural products expanded 8.1%, while agro-industrial products declined 2.7%. By destination, exports to primary markets increased 23.4%, led by the US at 50.1%, followed by China at 18.4%, Japan at 19%, the European Union at 35%, Asean 5 at 27% and CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) at 16.6%.

The director-general also said the impact on Thai exports is limited because about 60% of Thai exports to the US are exempt from the 12.5% tariff, although Thailand has not finalised negotiations on a reciprocal trade agreement with the US. Regarding civil unrest in Europe, he said the situation has not immediately affected Thai exports to the region, however, prolonged protests could dampen consumption in those countries, which may reduce demand for Thai exports.