Bitcoin falls 8.25% as $80,000 recovery fails despite lower Treasury yields
Bitcoin has failed to hold $80,000, and the usual support has not shown up. Between 21 and 30 October the largest cryptocurrency fell 8.25%, from about $84,134 to $77,191, even as yields on 10-year inflation-protected US Treasuries dropped 16 basis points to 2.60%, according to Federal Reserve data. Lower real yields normally cut the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin. This time, selling across crypto and technology stocks overwhelmed that support, with the Nasdaq-100 losing 4.82% over the same stretch.
The weakness carried into November. On 2 November the Nasdaq-100 fell another 1.39% and Bitcoin's daily Coinbase price observation slipped 1.34% to about $77,062, leaving it near $76,861 early on Tuesday and below the $80,000 level traders treat as a psychological marker. Bitfinex blamed declining technology shares and subdued spot demand for overwhelming the potential lift from falling real yields.
A crypto-specific shock made things worse. Binance's 29 October security breach was identified by trading firm Wintermute as the dominant trigger behind last week's downturn, hitting an already fragile market and setting off about $1.5 billion in liquidations, roughly 85% of them long positions. Wintermute said traders had tried to buy the dip through leveraged perpetual futures rather than sustained spot purchases, so falling prices forced further liquidations and deepened the slide. The firm said it saw little evidence of fresh capital entering to support a durable recovery.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.6 million in net outflows on 2 November, according to Farside Investors, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounting for $405.3 million in withdrawals, partly offset by $6.7 million into Fidelity's FBTC. That followed $643.2 million of outflows on 30 October, taking the two-session total to about $1.04 billion. Wintermute put $80,000 as the level Bitcoin must reclaim to reverse its cautious near-term view, with the 50-week moving average near $76,800 as the next support; a sustained break below it would strengthen the bearish case. September job openings on 3 November and the October employment report on 6 November could move yields and Fed expectations, but another fall in real yields may offer limited relief while technology shares stay under pressure and ETF investors keep withdrawing.
