Bitcoin dips below $73,000 as 50 bps December Fed hike odds hit 13.6%
Bitcoin fell to an intraday low below $73,000 on Nov. 10 after October inflation beat forecasts and the odds of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve hike in December jumped from 0% to 13.6%, according to a CME FedWatch snapshot. The chance of a quarter-point move edged up from 84% to 86.4%. Weighting all three outcomes, the expected December hike rose from 21.0 bps to 28.4 bps, up 7.4 bps.
Headline CPI rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%. That meets the condition Governor Christopher Waller set for considering a 50 bps move, though committee backing is a separate matter. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 by a 10-2 vote, with both dissenters wanting 25 bps. A 50/50 split between the two sizes would imply 37.5 bps, so the market still sits closer to its old expectation than to a half-point base case.
October's report was hotter than forecast but cooler than September on the headline, which slowed from 0.6% to 0.4%. Core stayed at 0.3% for a third month. At a constant 0.3% a month, core inflation compounds to about 3.7% annualised, a run-rate calculation that stands apart from an official annual figure; the BLS omitted an annual October comparison because the 2025 government shutdown interrupted data collection.
Three developments could strengthen the case for 50 bps: October core PCE on Nov. 25 confirming CPI, a Dec. 4 jobs report showing a labour market that can absorb more tightening, and several voting members publicly backing faster tightening. October payrolls rose 165,000 against a 12-month average of 48,000, unemployment was 4.1%, and hourly earnings rose 0.4%. PPI arrives Nov. 13, the October minutes Nov. 18, and the communications blackout begins Nov. 28. The decision comes Dec. 9, a day before November CPI lands.
A poll of 101 economists on Nov. 6 to 10 expects 25 bps in December, to 4.00%-4.25%; 56 see December as the final hike, while 45 expect at least two further increases in total. Cross-market moves on Nov. 10 showed the pressure: the two-year Treasury yield rose about 19 bps to 4.74%, the 10-year neared 4.99%, the dollar index gained 0.6%, and gold fell more than 2%. Farside Investors shows US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows of about $1.5 billion from Nov. 2 to Nov. 9.
Glassnode's Nov. 4 report found about 38% of short-term holder supply in profit, though much of the leverage built since August had cleared. It identified a modelled long-liquidation band at $73,000 to $76,000 and a concentration at $60,000 to $63,000, estimated levels where leveraged positions could be forced to close, not confirmed support or a price forecast. From $73,000, a move to $70,000 would be a further 4.1% decline. The readings to watch are PCE on Nov. 25, jobs on Dec. 4, and the Fed's tone before its blackout.
