Nifty has gained in 15 of the past 25 Novembers. Can seasonality beat FPI outflows?
The Nifty 50 has ended November higher in 15 of the past 25 years, with the month averaging a 2.5% gain and December close behind at 2.6%, according to NSE data analysed by SAMCO Research. That makes the final two months of the year the index's strongest, a seasonal pattern Indian investors will be watching as 2026 draws to a close after months of weakness.
Jahol Prajapati, equity research analyst at SAMCO Securities, said Diwali on 8 November could stretch festive activity across the month, supporting consumption sentiment, retail participation and liquidity. Year-end portfolio rebalancing, institutional positioning and expectations of better earnings visibility could add support as investors reassess valuations after the recent correction, he said. But he cautioned that persistent foreign portfolio investor outflows, elevated crude oil prices, rupee depreciation and global uncertainty remain live headwinds, and that a sustained recovery would need stronger corporate earnings, steadier global cues and returning foreign flows.
Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, said the seasonal picture varies sharply by segment. Over the past 20 years the Nifty 50 has closed November higher 10 times, averaging a 4.94% gain, and lower in the other 10, averaging a 3.22% fall. Bank Nifty has been stronger, rising in 14 of 20 Novembers with an average gain of 6.45%, while Nifty Midcap gained in 15 of 20, averaging 4.57%. Nifty Smallcap rose in 14 of 20 with an average 4.68% gain, but its six down years averaged an 8.54% decline, underlining the segment's volatility.
Sector performance has also followed a pattern, according to Shah: private banks, PSU banks, financial services and IT have historically been among November's strongest performers, while oil and gas, CPSE, metals, auto and pharma have lagged the broader market.
The question for investors is whether that record can outweigh the forces that have held the market back. Both analysts frame the answer around flows and earnings rather than the calendar alone.
