Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as Fed pause bets offset record ETF outflows
Bitcoin traded near $80,000 on Tuesday, holding a recovery above the $78,000 support level that has become the market's line in the sand, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from heavy inflows to $773.5 million of net outflows in two sessions.
The largest token changed hands around $79,900 to $80,149, with immediate support at $79,500-$79,800 and $77,500-$77,700 below that, according to Token Times' market read. Resistance sits at $80,700-$81,100, and a decisive break below $78,000 would raise the downside risk. Ethereum traded near $2,320-$2,327 after reclaiming the $2,300 level, with resistance at $2,360-$2,385.
ETF flows have been volatile. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $526.7 million on 19 October and $524.8 million on 21 October, then recorded $635.6 million of net outflows on 22 October and another $137.9 million on 23 October, weakening the earlier recovery in institutional demand. On 26 October, Bitcoin ETFs saw no net flow while Ethereum ETFs attracted $16.1 million, according to Token Times.
On-chain readings dated 18 October showed Bitcoin's MVRV at 1.5329, NUPL at 0.3477 and SOPR at 1.0018, suggesting aggregate holders remain in profit while recently moved coins are being spent near break-even. The data are delayed and do not rule out further selling.
The macro backdrop remains central. A Reuters poll found 94 of 100 economists expected the Federal Reserve to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00% at its 27-28 October meeting, with all respondents expecting an increase in December. The US 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 5%, oil remained above $110 and the dollar strengthened, keeping borrowing costs and inflation concerns elevated. Asian equities rose, with South Korea's KOSPI up more than 4% and Japan's Nikkei up 1.9%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%.
Token Times' advice: investors should avoid trying to catch a falling market and watch Bitcoin's $78,000 support, ETF flows and the Fed's guidance before increasing exposure.
