Grab lifts forecasts as 57 million users offset Indonesia's commission squeeze
Grab Holdings raised its full-year revenue and profit forecasts after quarterly earnings beat estimates, signalling confidence that ride-hailing and food-delivery demand across Southeast Asia will offset regulatory hurdles.
Sales will rise as high as US$4.2 billion this year, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation will expand to as much as US$800 million, the company said on Tuesday. In August it had forecast sales of as much as US$4.15 billion and earnings on that basis of up to US$740 million. The stock rose more than 6% in after-hours trading.
In the quarter through September, adjusted Ebitda rose 74% to US$237 million, against an average analyst projection of US$194.2 million, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Revenue grew 27% to US$1.1 billion, roughly in line with estimates. Grab added about three million monthly users in the quarter for a total of 57 million as more consumers in Southeast Asia go online.
Higher fuel prices are raising ride and delivery costs across the region of about 700 million people. Platform companies are offering incentives to drivers and customers to soften the blow, but that risks squeezing already thin margins. Competition remains intense, with GoTo Group and new entrants such as Green & Smart Mobility JSC vying against Grab in populous markets like Indonesia and Vietnam. Uber Technologies, one of Grab's backers, could also be a looming threat: its planned acquisition of Delivery Hero opens a path for Uber Eats to re-enter Southeast Asia, while Alphabet's Waymo plans to launch robotaxis in Singapore in 2028.
Regulators are piling on pressure too. Indonesia, one of Grab's biggest markets, has already cut the maximum commission companies can charge on scooter rides and is considering further rules on areas like food delivery by the end of the year. Grab is in talks with the Indonesian government about potential delivery commission cap changes, chief financial officer Peter Oey said in an interview. The company is also striking deals beyond its core business: in September it agreed to acquire a majority stake in buy-now-pay-later platform Atome Financial for US$1.49 billion, after buying US-based Stash Financial for an enterprise value of US$425 million. Last month, Taiwan's Fair Trade Commission blocked Grab's roughly US$600 million purchase of Foodpanda's local delivery operations on antitrust concerns. "We're very disappointed about Taiwan," Oey said. "From a geography expansion perspective, we will look at other opportunities, but we are very focused also on Southeast Asia." Shares of Grab had dropped more than 40% this year through Monday's regular trading, cutting its market value to US$11.7 billion.
