KSE-100 closes below 170,000 as caution weighs on PSX

The KSE-100 index fell 2,610 points, or 1.5%, during the outgoing week to close at 168,155, slipping below the 170,000 level as geopolitical uncertainty, elevated oil prices and a lack of progress on US-Iran negotiations kept investors cautious, Arif Habib Limited said. Average daily traded volume declined 22% week-on-week to 525 million shares, while traded value fell 17% to Rs18.7 billion, AHL added.

The benchmark index remained under pressure throughout the week. It slid 340 points (-0.20%) to 170,426 on Monday and lost 825 points (-0.48%) to close at 169,600 on Tuesday, breaching the key psychological level of 170k after a gap of seven trading sessions. It recovered 369 points (+0.22%) to 169,969 on Wednesday, ending Sept'26 below the milestone, before falling 1,332 points (-0.78%) to 168,636 on Thursday and 481 points (-0.29%) to 168,155 on the final day of trading. AHL attributed part of the weakness to the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis, which it said dampened hopes of successful negotiations.

The week's economic data was mixed. The government raised Rs880 billion in the latest T-bills' auction, with yields rising for all tenors in the range of 49.5 to 75 basis points, and Rs480 billion of the total raised in the three-month tenor. For Sept'26, tax collection by the FBR improved 9% YoY to Rs1,344 billion, which was Rs1 billion above the target of Rs1,343 billion. This took the quarterly collection to Rs3,066 billion, marking an increase of 7% compared to last year and Rs13 billion above the FBR's target. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Sept'26 clocked in at 10.3% YoY compared to 11.1% in Aug'26, AHL said.

Pakistan's liquid foreign exchange reserves position as of October 1 stood at $26.8 billion. Of these, the State Bank-held reserves were $21.4 billion, up $38.9 million, translating into an import cover of 3.04 months. The government increased the National Savings profit rates, effective from Oct'26, by 3 to 19 basis points, with the largest increase of 19 basis points for the Defence Saving Certificates. The Pakistani rupee appreciated marginally by 0.03%, closing at Rs277.07/USD.

Overall refinery supplies surged 32% YoY to 1,084k tons in Sept'26, driven by strong growth across MS, HSD and FO. On a MoM basis, the upliftment improved by 12.5%. OMC sales declined 2% YoY in Sept'26 to 1.35 million tons, amid higher fuel prices. On a MoM basis, OMC sales increased 7%. Pakistan's crude/POL imports surged 21% year-on-year in Aug'26, driven by a 55% increase in crude oil imports. Meanwhile, local crude production increased 7%. AHL said market direction would once again remain contingent on geopolitical developments and the ongoing talks between government of Pakistan and the IMF. It named OGDC, PPL, FFC, LUCK, MLCF, NBP, PSO, DGKC, ENGROH, AKBL and NPL as its top picks, and said KSE-100 profitability reached an all-time high of Rs2,031 billion ($7.3 billion) in FY26, reflecting an 18% YoY increase, with banks and E&Ps the major contributors.