Qatar's economy to jump 15 per cent in 2027 on gas sector recovery, S&P says
Qatar's real gross domestic product is set to swing from a 14 per cent contraction this year to 15 per cent growth in 2027, S&P Global Ratings said, as the Gulf state brings more gas supply back online after Iranian strikes damaged two of its 14 LNG export trains. The damage has removed 12.8 million tonnes a year from the market, about 17 per cent of Qatar's liquefied natural gas capacity, and QatarEnergy has said repairs will take three to five years. Even a safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would restore access to only part of the country's prewar supply, according to Token Times.
The hit to state finances is already visible. Emir Sheikh Tamim told a Shura Council meeting this month that government revenue fell 42 per cent in the first half of the year on the drop in LNG exports. S&P still expects the North Field expansion to proceed, with some delays, and projects average growth of 8 per cent across 2028 and 2029.
"Increasing demand from rapidly developing Asian economies, coupled with LNG's key role as a transitional fuel in the global energy shift, will support Qatar's export volumes," S&P analysts wrote. They flagged a prolonged shutdown or disruption to LNG production and exports as a key downside risk, while expecting diversification efforts and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure to lift the nonhydrocarbon sector over the next two to three years. Inflation is forecast to rise modestly to about 4 per cent.
S&P kept Qatar's AA sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, the third-highest on its scale and deep in investment grade, citing "sizeable" fiscal and external assets. Those assets "provide significant scope to counter volatility, support economic fundamentals, or aid recovery during and after a period of conflict", the analysts said, adding that the policymaking and sound financial profiles of public sector entities including QatarEnergy have let the country adapt to stress. Fitch Ratings has taken a similar view in its May and September assessments. The stable outlook rests on S&P's expectation that damage to civilian and energy infrastructure will be limited, with a reassessment due if hostilities escalate sharply.
In a separate move, S&P cut its outlook on Meta Platforms to negative, questioning when the company's AI spending, recently guided to $135 billion-$145 billion, will generate returns that exceed its rising costs. The agency noted that several peers already monetise data centre investments by leasing compute capacity to third parties, including frontier model labs and enterprise customers.
