Bitcoin rally cools as CryptoQuant bull score nears perfect reading

Bitcoin edged up 0.4 per cent to just above $83,300 in Wednesday Asian morning trading, easing back from an eight-month high near $87,400, as an onchain trend gauge moved to within 10 points of a perfect score while the demand behind the rally faded.

CryptoQuant, an onchain analysis firm, puts its Bull Score at 90 out of 100. The measure rolls onchain and market indicators into a single reading, and it jumped after bitcoin broke above its 365-day moving average last week — a break the firm treats as confirmation of a bull market. The buying behind that move is already shrinking. CryptoQuant estimates spot demand has contracted by about 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, measured by a gauge it calls apparent demand, which compares newly mined bitcoin with changes in the pile of coins that have not moved for a year or more. That gauge has been contracting all month, and futures demand is cooling faster: growth in speculative futures demand fell from about 164,000 BTC on 14 September to 16,000 BTC on 29 September, a 90 per cent drop in 15 days. "Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote in the report. "With spot demand still in contraction and futures growth stalling, near-term upside becomes harder to sustain."

Recent buyers are sitting on an average unrealised profit of 33 per cent, the widest since December 2024, according to CryptoQuant. They locked in gains on 25,700 BTC on 22 September, the largest single day of profit-taking this year. Altcoin holders are also moving coins onto exchanges, with CryptoQuant counting 76,000 altcoin deposits over seven days from 51,000 separate addresses, the most since October 2025. Coins held on an exchange can be sold within seconds, putting that supply within easy reach of any bounce.

Among the majors, SOL and ZEC led with gains of nearly 2 per cent each, to about $119 and just above $1,400, while XRP added about 1 per cent to just under $1.50 and ether, BNB and TRX each rose less than 1 per cent, CoinDesk data shows. The broader Asian session was firmer, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 0.9 per cent and 10 of its 11 industry groups higher, while bonds steadied after a bruising selloff. SoftBank Group, an OpenAI investor, jumped more than 6 per cent after Bloomberg reported that the AI start-up is seeking at least $30 billion in fresh funding at a $1.4 trillion valuation, and equity-index futures pointed to gains in Europe and on Wall Street. Traders are waiting on a key US inflation reading later in the day for clues on the path of interest rates, with a higher print tending to lift the dollar and weigh on risk assets such as bitcoin, and a softer one tilting expectations towards a cut.