SPI inflation stays near 12% as wheat flour and petrol lift prices

Pakistan's short-term inflation gauge remained close to 12% year-on-year in the week ended 8 October 2026, as wheat flour, chicken and petrol kept pressure on household budgets, data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics showed.

The Sensitive Price Indicator rose 0.57% from the previous week and 11.97% from the same week a year earlier. The combined index stood at 372.58, against 370.46 a week earlier and 332.75 on 9 October 2025.

Wheat flour led the weekly increase, rising 5.69% to Rs2,851 for a 20-kilogramme bag from Rs2,697 a week earlier and Rs2,150 a year ago. Chicken rose 4.93% to Rs383 a kilogramme, gram pulse 3.99%, and petrol and tomatoes 2.40% each, with petrol averaging Rs398.87 a litre. Masoor pulse, prepared tea, cooked daal, mash pulse and an 11.67kg LPG cylinder, which averaged Rs5,132, also recorded smaller gains. Bananas fell 2.81%, diesel 1.37% to Rs397.02 a litre, potatoes 0.89%, sugar 0.37%, gur 0.19% and moong pulse 0.03%. Of the 51 items tracked in 50 markets across 17 cities, prices of 20 rose, six fell and 25 were unchanged.

The annual reading was driven by energy and a handful of staples. Onion prices more than doubled, up 100.24% to Rs190 a kilogramme from Rs95 a year earlier. LPG was 68.55% higher, electricity charges for the first quarter 58.59%, petrol 47.52% and diesel 42.52%. Wheat flour was up 32.60%, chilli powder 15.55%, mutton 15.02%, beef 12.60%, chicken 9.44%, plain bread 8.99% and curd 8.08%. Potatoes fell 39.51%, tomatoes 37.07%, sugar 22.44% and eggs 18.88%, while salt, masoor pulse, gur and moong pulse were also cheaper than a year earlier.

The burden was uneven across income groups. The SPI for the highest consumption quintile rose 12.48% year-on-year, against 9.41% for the lowest; week-on-week, the top group rose 0.60% and the bottom 0.52%. The weekly reading sits above the broader August trend: consumer price inflation rose 11.1% year-on-year in August 2026, against 9.2% in July and 3.1% in August 2025, and was unchanged at 1.2% month-on-month. Urban CPI rose 10.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, while rural CPI rose 12.2% and 1.6%.