Trump says US could attack Iran as soon as Sunday or reach a deal
Indian equity and bullion traders face two opposite openings on Monday, depending on whether US President Donald Trump orders an attack on Iran as soon as Sunday or reaches a deal with Tehran, market analysts said. Trump said Washington is weighing a strike and might have to "finish the job" or could instead settle with Tehran, leaving the Sensex, Nifty 50, gold and silver exposed to whichever path he takes.
Avinash Gorakshkar, founder of Avinash Mentor Research, said a Sunday attack would hit bulls waiting for a rebound in Indian equities, gold and silver after heavy selling last week, while a deal would force bears to pause. He raised a third possibility: a standoff until US midterm election results on 3 November 2026, arguing Tehran's response to Trump's remark is not encouraging and the US president may wait.
On the Nifty 50, Sumeet Bagadia, executive director at Choice Broking, said escalation could break support at 22,200 and pull the index toward 21,800 to 21,750, while a deal could push it above resistance at 22,700 to 22,750. The Sensex, which closed at 73,123, could fall toward 72,500 to 72,300 on an attack or break 73,800 on a deal, he said.
Sandeep Pandey, co-founder of Basav Capital, said escalation would feed crude already at an "alarming" $115 a barrel, hurting hopes of recovery once oil returns to a new normal near $85, and would stoke inflation and tighter liquidity. A deal, he said, would cool crude, lower inflation and favour dovish central banks, with rate-sensitive stocks most exposed either way.
Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said an attack would be negative for gold and silver after last week's losses. With silver near ₹1,96,000 a kg, escalation could take it to ₹1,85,000 and then ₹1,78,000, he said, while gold at about ₹1,42,000 per 10 gm could slip to ₹1,40,000 and ₹1,37,000. A deal, he said, could lift gold to ₹1,45,000 and ₹1,48,000 and silver to ₹2,03,000 and ₹2,10,000, with prices sideways to negative if nothing changes.
