Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway silent as OCR vote splits and kiwi falls

Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway voted to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points, then sat at the front of the bank's post-review press conference and did not say a word. Governor Anna Breman did not call on him either, leaving the bank's most senior economist silent on a decision that sent the New Zealand dollar lower.

The Monetary Policy Committee held the OCR at 2.75%, with four members backing a hold and three wanting an increase to 3%. Breman and new internal member Rebecca Williams, the bank's senior manager of economics who reports to Conway, voted with the majority. Conway, assistant governor Karen Silk and external member Hayley Gourley voted for the hike. External members Carl Hansen and Prasanna Gai, hawks at the May meeting, switched to the hold camp this time.

It was only the second time the committee's vote has been disclosed publicly. In May, the three internal members voted to hold at 2.25% while the three externals wanted a 25 basis point increase, and Breman used her casting vote to keep rates unchanged. BNZ head of research Stephen Toplis, a veteran Reserve Bank watcher, said the latest decision left him "frankly flabbergasted", according to Token Times.

The meeting came 10 days before an election, with the bank expecting consumer price inflation of 4.4% in the December quarter, against a backdrop of a global oil shock and concerns about an AI investment bubble. Silk is due to leave the bank in December. The Reserve Bank has offered one-on-one interviews with committee members, and an interview with Conway has been requested, according to Token Times.