Bitcoin has averaged a 53.7% gain in the year after US midterms
Bitcoin has gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after the last three US midterm elections, according to Token Times analysis of daily price data, a record that puts the November 3 vote in focus for crypto traders even though the ballot has nothing to do with the blockchain.
The figure covers 2014, 2018 and 2022, measured from the daily close on Election Day to the close on the same date a year later. Token Times excluded 2010, when the market was small enough that a 1,579% post-election rise says little about today's prices. Bitcoin has already bounced more than 35% since bottoming below $60,000 in June and has recently traded around $80,000.
The S&P 500 offers a longer record and points the same way. Hartford Funds data show the index has averaged a 15.17% gain in the year after midterms since 1950, against 7.30% in other years.
History is thin, though, and the crypto pattern may have little to do with politics. Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle has produced a sharp rally after each of its four mining-reward cuts, a peak 12 to 18 months later, and then a bear market that has landed in each midterm year, including this one. On that reading, the post-midterm rebounds were the start of a fresh cycle, not a reaction to Washington.
The 2026 vote could still reshape crypto policy. If Democrats take one or both chambers of Congress, committee chairs could open investigations into conflicts of interest around President Donald Trump's personal crypto profits; Democratic lawmakers have already sent oversight letters on his crypto ties and family business ventures, and his memecoin, launched in January 2025, has produced heavy losses for retail investors. The Supreme Court's ruling in Trump v. Slaughter, however, left most financial regulators under White House control, limiting what Congress could do to stop the administration promoting crypto. Markets have largely priced in a divided government, with Democrats expected to take at least one chamber.
