Bitcoin's $85,000 recovery awaits proof ETF investors kept buying
Bitcoin traded at about $85,276, up 0.83% over 24 hours, but stayed below the $86,000 area it reached before the September employment report released on Oct. 2, leaving the durability of its recovery above $85,000 unresolved ahead of Monday's US session.
A post-payrolls study published by Glassnode on Oct. 3 found that the strongest burst of forced buying came before the jobs release rather than after it. Glassnode measured $50 million of short liquidations within ten minutes at 04:20 UTC on Oct. 2, roughly eight hours before the release, and said Bitcoin was more than 1% below its immediate pre-release level by 15:40 UTC. Rising prices force short sellers to close positions, adding buying pressure; once those positions are closed, holding the higher price depends on other buyers absorbing continuing offers, according to the study.
The same study estimated the probability of an additional quarter-point rate increase at the Oct. 28 meeting fell from 66% on Sept. 28 to 22% by 15:00 UTC on Oct. 2, a calculation Glassnode based on fed funds futures and the effective federal funds rate. The most recent observed Federal Reserve decision was a rate increase: its Sept. 16 announcement raised the target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%-4%. Falling October hike odds leave that increase in place, and a cut would require a separate policy decision. Glassnode's Friday intraday study also showed short-term yields falling while long-term yields rose, with the ten-year near 5.2%.
Futures positioning and fund flows give separate evidence. Open interest rose $2.1 billion in the 24 hours before payrolls, and about 2.5% when measured in coins, before falling $1.5 billion after continuing to rise for roughly an hour following the release, according to Glassnode. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $102 million on Oct. 1, according to Farside Investors' flow table, following redemptions the previous day and indicating fund buying had returned before the report. Thursday's flow describes a session before the release, leaving Friday's response to be measured separately. Glassnode's Sept. 30 study put combined spot-exchange and US spot-ETF trading volume at about $6.4 billion a day, near the bottom of its range since the ETFs launched, providing a dated baseline for judging whether activity broadens.
The Institute for Supply Management's September services report is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Its previous August survey combined a headline PMI of 55.4 with employment at 47.8 and a prices index of 72.6, a mix of expanding activity, contracting employment and broad input-cost pressure. Softer employment alongside easing price pressure could reinforce the case for policy patience, while persistent price pressure or stronger activity could complicate it. Repeated ETF inflows would extend the Oct. 1 evidence; renewed redemptions would leave the recovery reliant on closed futures positions.
