Goldman sees Brent at $105 in December on substantial supply risks
Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, and lifted its 2027 average to $88, as analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said substantial downside supply risks are likely to sustain a large, near-term risk premium.
The bank's November 1 note, which also raised its outlook for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate, said markets are assigning increasing weight to escalation after the Nov. 3 US midterms and subsequent potential weakness in Mideast supply. Brent rallied 14% in October to a six-month high even as Middle East crude supplies rebounded close to pre-war levels, with traders watching whether hostilities between the US and Iran flare again. President Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted he may resume airstrikes, while Iran's supreme leader has ordered his top commanders to prepare for renewed confrontation.
Goldman now builds a 1 million barrel-a-day global supply disruption allowance into its 2027 base case, citing the near-impossibility of predicting the timing and location of disruptions, alongside risks from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Intensified shipping attacks and damage to infrastructure were among the factors that could push prices higher, the analysts said.
The bank sketched scenarios spanning roughly $70 a barrel. In its upside case, Brent may average $130 next year if Persian Gulf output stays 3.5 million barrels a day below last year's average; in the downside case, marked by a faster regional recovery, futures might decline into the $60s. Goldman joins Morgan Stanley, which raised its Dated Brent forecast to $105 for the fourth quarter, and ANZ Group Holdings, which lifted its year-end Brent view to the same figure. Most-active contracts traded below $110 on Monday.
