JPMorgan includes bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions

JPMorgan Asset Management has assigned bitcoin a projected return in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) for the first time in the report's 31 editions, giving the cryptocurrency a 10% annual compounded base-case return over the next decade. That is the highest figure in the report's public asset table, ahead of large-cap US equities at 7,5%, US aggregate bonds at 5,6% and gold at 5,5%, according to the 2027 edition published on 19 October.

The range around that central case is wide. Starting from a price of US$83 thousand on 30 September, the optimistic scenario projects a 16,6% annual return, while the pessimistic case envisages an 11,2% annual decline. JPMorgan attributes the spread to expected volatility of 55%, more than three times gold's 17,2%, which also lifts the arithmetic average return to 20,9% against the 10% that actually compounds over time.

The bank built its projection from three approaches. The most heavily weighted, at 65%, compares bitcoin issuance with global money supply and yields 10,7% a year. A second, weighted 30%, treats bitcoin as a complement to gold, with investors rotating part of that exposure into the digital asset, and also returns 10,7%; its optimistic variant assumes a central bank adds bitcoin to its reserves, lifting the figure to 17,3%, the highest in the table. The third, based on network adoption, carries just 5% weight and produces a negative return of 3,2% a year.

JPMorgan was cautious in framing the number. Its analysts describe bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary expansion, warn that a ten-year projection is premature and keep it out of their portfolio models. They cite historical volatility of about 55%, roughly three times that of equities and gold, and unstable correlations with other assets. Bitcoin therefore appears in a separate table as illustrative reference rather than as an allocation recommendation.

The inclusion still carries symbolic weight. The LTCMA is a reference document for pension funds and large institutional investors, and its adoption of bitcoin reflects the asset's gradual progress on Wall Street. The report cites a JPMorgan Private Bank survey of family offices in which about one in ten said they held cryptoassets and 17% planned to prioritise them. The asset manager said bitcoin's role in portfolios could grow if its volatility falls and correlations stabilise, and recommended stress-testing any position against both ends of the range before investing.