Predictions · Forecasts & Outlooks
What moves markets next: leaders' speeches, central bank calls, tariffs, and the forecasts that follow.
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MARKETSGoldman Sachs pushes back Fed rate hike forecast to December
Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve's next rate increase in December rather than October, after US inflation came in below forecasts. Markets price a 38% chance of an October hike.
NEWSMultilaterals forecast Pakistan growth below government target
The Asian Development Bank forecasts 3.7 per cent growth for Pakistan this fiscal year, below the government's 4 per cent forecast, with the World Bank at 3.2 per cent and the IMF at 3.5 per cent.
POLICY & REGULATIONPakistan tells IMF Middle East conflict no longer drags on its outlook
Pakistan told the IMF the Middle East conflict will no longer affect its outlook, projecting 7.5% inflation and a stable external account, while the Fund pressed for policy adjustments.
MARKETSThai exports projected to grow 15-16% in 2026 on electronics and AI demand
The Trade Policy and Strategy Office expects exports to grow 15-16% in 2026, up from an earlier 11% projection, driven by electronics demand and investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
FINTECHGartner sees $656 billion in global AI software spending in 2027
Gartner forecasts global AI software spending of approximately $656 billion in 2027. For UAE businesses, the harder question is whether cash arrives before the commitments do.
- MARKETS
Preferred stock has financed purchases of some 136,000 bitcoin, Fidelity says
Strategy and Strive have funded some 136,000 bitcoin through perpetual preferred shares paying dividends as high as 12%. Fidelity and analysts warn the model depends on those shares holding near par.
- NEWS
Brazil fund manager warns fiscal pullback will squeeze company margins
HIX Capital's Rodrigo Heilberg says the end of fiscal stimulus will weaken Brazilian corporate earnings next year, pushing him toward defensive stocks with predictable cash flow.
NEWSInfosys cuts FY27 revenue guidance to 1%-2% as AI services reach 10.5% of revenue
Infosys reported 6.2% profit growth and a 10.2% rise in revenue for the September quarter, but trimmed its FY27 growth forecast to 1%-2%, citing pricing pressure and competition.
NEWSWorld Bank projects 4.2% Pakistan growth, urges flexible rupee
The World Bank forecasts 4.2% growth in fiscal year 2027-28 and 4.4% in the 2029 election year, warning that a managed exchange rate invites disruptive adjustments.
POLICY & REGULATIONRussia's central bank holds key rate at 14% as inflation risks persist
The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14%, citing high inflation expectations and war-related supply pressures, while slightly raising its full-year inflation forecast.
MARKETSKSE-100 falls 1,335.01 points as oil price surge linked to Saudi Arabia-Houthi fighting weighs on sentiment
The benchmark index slid 0.81% to 162,589.30 by the Friday prayers break, with participants blaming higher Brent crude near $113-114 for renewed pressure on Pakistan's import bill and inflation outlook.
NEWSBIS paper links higher deposit rates to slower stablecoin growth
A Bank for International Settlements working paper finds that small rises in bank deposit rates predict slower growth in stablecoin market capitalisation, with a stronger effect for USDC than USDT.
MARKETSBitcoin slips below $81,000 as Fed rate uncertainty grips markets
Bitcoin fell below $81,000 and global stocks weakened after US inflation data revived bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, with prediction markets briefly pricing near-even odds.
NEWSUS inflation accelerates in September as gasoline prices surge
US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, with core inflation above forecasts, lifting the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month to about 52%.
NEWSIMF projects Pakistan's inflation rising to 9.9% in 2027 as growth slows
The IMF's World Economic Outlook sees Pakistan's inflation climbing to 9.9% in 2027 from 4.5% in 2025, with GDP growth easing to 3.5% and the current account swinging to a 1% deficit.
POLICY & REGULATIONTakaichi's fiscal messaging needs substance, analysts say
Japan's prime minister is changing her fiscal rhetoric as bond investors watch a USD7 trillion debt pile. Analysts warn that without real spending discipline, words alone will not convince markets.
MARKETSNorway's core inflation steady at 3.0 percent in September
Norway's core inflation was unchanged at 3.0 percent year-on-year in September, data from Statistics Norway showed, slightly below analyst forecasts but above Norges Bank's own expectation.
MARKETSAI borrowing boom may keep Bitcoin's macro headwind alive after Fed pauses
Minutes from the Fed's 15-16 September meeting cited AI infrastructure debt issuance among factors pushing Treasury yields higher, complicating Bitcoin's macro outlook even after rate rises end.
POLICY & REGULATIONState Bank of Pakistan unlikely to meet FY27 inflation target, analysts say
Analysts expect the State Bank of Pakistan to keep monetary policy tight, with September Consumer Price Index inflation at 10.3 per cent and T-bill yields rising before the Oct 26 policy meeting.
NEWSUS PCE inflation rises less than expected in August
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose 0.3 per cent in August, below the 0.4 per cent Reuters poll forecast, while the US goods trade deficit widened sharply on surging imports.