Fitch keeps Abu Dhabi at AA as net sovereign assets near 300% of GDP

Abu Dhabi's net sovereign foreign assets are set to reach about 300% of GDP by the end of 2025, against an average of 45.1% for sovereigns rated AA, Fitch Ratings said as it affirmed the emirate's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at AA with a stable outlook.

The agency put government debt at roughly 19.3% of GDP at end-2025, well below the 46.5% median for AA-rated peers, and said it expects borrowing to stay near that level. Fitch added that the emirate is leaning more on local-currency issuance, a shift it linked to the development of the domestic capital market.

On the fiscal side, Fitch projects a budget surplus of 7.1% of GDP in 2026, including investment income from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, with the surplus widening in 2027 on higher hydrocarbon output before narrowing in 2028. Its baseline assumes Brent crude averaging $70 a barrel in 2027 and $60 in 2028. Surpluses are expected to flow to government-related entities running long-term development projects and into domestic bank deposits.

Fitch credited the stable outlook to oil export revenue holding up through the US-Iran war, which it said let Abu Dhabi keep building external and fiscal reserves. It also expects non-oil activity to keep growing through 2026 on high capital spending, countercyclical support measures and consumer demand, with real GDP growth accelerating to 15.1% in 2027 as hydrocarbon output rises and GRE-funded infrastructure work continues.

The agency said Abu Dhabi's banks have stayed resilient through geopolitical friction, pointing to ample liquidity and solid capital buffers. For investors, the affirmation keeps one of the Gulf's strongest sovereign balance sheets in the AA bracket, with a debt load less than half the peer median.