Jio's 28% debut gain puts Airtel back on the buy list, analysts say
Jio Platforms has added nearly 28% to its ₹1,119 issue price since listing on Wednesday, 28 October, lifting its market capitalisation to almost ₹13.18 lakh crore and making it India's second-most valuable listed company behind parent Reliance Industries. The debut followed an IPO that drew bids for 22.19 times the shares on offer.
That scale is precisely the problem for investors weighing it against Bharti Airtel, according to Gaurav Arora, head of research at SAHI. He said Jio's listing at a valuation of around ₹10.3 lakh crore puts it among India's top five companies from day one, which shifts the question from how fast the business can grow to what returns buyers can expect from here. Companies of that size rarely outgrow the wider economy by much, he said, making low double-digit annual returns a reasonable base case.
Arora pointed to Jio's average revenue per user of about ₹215 a month, or roughly $2.5, across a subscriber base of 53 crore. US operators collect $45 or more, but he cautioned against reading the gap as untapped pricing power: much of it reflects income levels, with the average American earning around 30 times the average Indian. Indian ARPU growth has come mainly through the tariff hikes of 2019, 2021 and 2024, which typically needed coordinated moves by all three operators, he said. "Until Jio's valuation reflects a more grounded growth trajectory rather than scale alone, Bharti Airtel remains the stronger investment story," Arora said.
Ratiraj Tibrewal, director at Choice Capital Advisors, cast the pair as different propositions rather than rivals on one metric. Jio, he said, is a scale-and-growth story built on the largest subscriber base, an aggressive 5G and fixed wireless rollout, and a digital ecosystem spanning cloud, enterprise and artificial intelligence that is still largely awaiting monetisation. Airtel is a quality-and-returns story, with structurally higher ARPU from its premium postpaid mix, strong return ratios, robust free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation, plus a record of leading tariff increases.
Tibrewal cautioned that the listing alone is no reason to buy. Investors should compare earnings growth over the next two to three years, EV/EBITDA relative to growth, free cash flow yield and return on capital employed, and judge how well each can pass on tariff rises without losing subscribers. Sector-wide regulatory change and spectrum costs, execution risk on Jio's digital monetisation, and a valuation that may already price in substantial growth are the main hazards. "Investors with a longer investment horizon and a higher risk appetite can consider Jio, while those prioritising earnings visibility and capital discipline may prefer Airtel," he said.
