Thai fuel demand to peak this year and fall to half by 2050
Thailand's fuel demand is forecast to peak this year and then fall steadily to roughly half that level by 2050, according to a joint study by the Department of Energy Business and Chulalongkorn University. The finding sits at the centre of a revised 2026 oil plan that energy policymakers say will balance decarbonisation with energy security as the country targets a balance between greenhouse gas emissions and carbon absorption by 2050.
Sarawut Kaewtathip, director-general of the Department of Energy Business, said the plan pushes wider biofuel use across every transport mode: E20 gasohol and B20 biodiesel on the roads, sustainable aviation fuel in the air and B24 marine biofuel at sea. Liquefied natural gas is cast as a transition fuel, cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 20-30% against conventional oil, he said. The Oil Fuel Fund will be used to encourage E20 and B20 uptake, with E20 positioned as the country's standard gasoline grade.
Consumer scepticism is the plan's stiffest obstacle. A department survey with Chulalongkorn University found 40% of car owners and 55% of motorcycle users did not know their vehicles could run on E20, while roughly 40% of car drivers and 64% of motorcycle users feared engine damage or weaker performance, despite automakers' assurances that most vehicles built since 2008 can use the fuel safely.
On supply, the government wants refiners to evolve into biorefineries that process sugar cane, cassava, palm oil and organic waste. Bangchak Corporation and PTT Global Chemical are already making aviation biofuel from used cooking oil, and the department is working with the Board of Investment on incentives for SAF plants. Infrastructure is the third pillar: authorities want pipelines to carry 45-55% of oil, are working with Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co and BAFS Pipeline Transportation Co on a northern expansion between Saraburi and Ang Thong, and are studying a shift in excise collection from origin depots to destination terminals to ease operators' working capital.
Sarawut said three strategies will guide the industry through the decline: co-processing bio-feedstocks in existing refineries for aviation and shipping, redirecting refining capacity towards petrochemicals, and building terminals and pipelines that can handle both petroleum and low-carbon fuels. Gasoline and diesel are expected to fall fastest as electric vehicle adoption accelerates, while liquefied petroleum gas and jet fuel decline more slowly.
