Thiago Nigro: 2027 will be a year of survival and opportunity
Thiago Nigro, an entrepreneur and finance content creator, said 2027 will be a year of survival for companies facing high interest rates, debt and a lack of economic predictability. He was speaking to journalists after a panel at ABF Con, the annual convention of the Brazilian Franchising Association, held on Thursday, 29, on Comandatuba island in Una, Bahia.
"2027 vai ser um ano de sobrevivência. Só que, junto com a sobrevivência, tem sempre um outro lado também, que é o ano da oportunidade, porque é o ano em que o dinheiro muda de mão", Nigro said. He warned that indebted businesses face rising costs and little room for a quick recovery: "Quem está endividado provavelmente vai ficar mais endividado. Os negócios não estão com um cenário tão positivo a ponto de aumentarem o seu resultado."
Nigro pointed to the consumption tax reform as an added planning challenge. From January, the federal CBS contribution begins replacing PIS and Cofins, with the state and municipal IBS phased in gradually. The reference rate for CBS has yet to be defined, leaving firms unable to parameterise systems, revise prices or calculate tax costs. He singled out the split payment mechanism, which separates the tax portion at the moment of payment, as a working-capital risk: "Pequenos empreendedores seriam os mais afetados pelo split payment".
He also flagged the international backdrop, saying a weaker global economy leaves less room to absorb shocks and clouds the path of inflation and interest rates. Without clear parameters on taxes, rates and the exchange rate, budgeting becomes guesswork: "É um absurdo a gente chegar próximo do final do ano sem saber como projetar um orçamento relevante para o ano que vem", he said.
Nigro's prescription leans on technology. He urged entrepreneurs to adopt artificial intelligence from the outset to handle administrative tasks, organise information and serve customers, producing more with leaner teams. "Hoje, pouca gente sabe usar direito as capacidades que existem numa ferramenta como essa, mas você pode empreender, dependendo do seu negócio, muitas vezes com uma assistente de inteligência artificial fazendo tudo que você às vezes contrataria alguém para fazer", he said. For would-be founders, he recommended identifying their own skills, studying proven business models, choosing segments with margins that can absorb costs, and seeking out people who can offer knowledge and encouragement — arguing that financial discipline, adaptability and technology will be decisive in 2027.
